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美国保险业曝惊天大雷 200亿美元保费被挪走 超级富豪沃尔特或面临刑事指控_我的网站

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    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。    　　来源：险联社　　“买下保险公司，把数以万亿计的保费当成自己的“提款机”，拿去豪赌高风险资产，美国保险业正在爆出一个震动全美金融圈的超级大雷。”　　最近，特朗普女婿的弟弟Joshua Kushner联手迪士尼前CEO Bob Iger以125亿美元从体育富豪马克．沃尔特（Mark Walter）手里买下洛杉矶湖人队。　　2025年，沃尔特刚刚以100亿美元买下湖人控股权，一年时间，溢价25亿美元转手。

二 | 　　这听起来像是一笔精明的投资，但背后的故事，远非这么简单。

三 | 　　沃尔特扩充自己商业帝国的资金，相当一部分来自控制的两家保险公司的保费。如今FBI、纽约南区联邦检察官都已经盯上了沃尔特。　　保险公司成提款机 200多亿美元投向关联企业　　沃尔特今年66岁，据亿万富豪指数，沃尔特的净资产为163亿美元。

四 | 　　沃尔特在体育圈大名鼎鼎，美国职业棒球大联盟的洛杉矶道奇队、NBA的洛杉矶湖人队、英超切尔西足球俱乐部、凯迪拉克F1车队，都是沃尔特的资产。　　沃尔特还控制了两家保险公司——特拉华人寿保险公司（Delaware Life Insurance Co．）和清泉人寿与年金公司（Clear Spring Life and Annuity Co．）。　　太阳底下没有新鲜事，沃尔特干的事情跟国内很多已经被接管的保险公司一样，支撑起沃尔特商业帝国的资金，超过200亿美元来自其控制的保险公司。　　2008年金融危机后，不少保险公司遇到经营危机，沃尔特大举收购保险公司。　　当然，沃尔特没有多大心思经营保险业务，他看重的是保险公司带来的巨大现金流：　　把保险公司当成自己的“提款机”，拿去豪赌高风险资产，扩充自己的商业帝国，以追求更高回报。　　监管机构怀疑上述保险公司借助第三方渠道，将200多亿美元贷款转贷给沃尔特关联企业，但未按照监管要求向保险监管部门申报为关联交易。　　这些贷款占其投资资产的40%，在北美寿险公司中比例最高。　　沃尔特或面临刑事指控　　关联资产虽合法，但因存在利益冲突需要严格披露和监管。　　2025年9月，在芝加哥国际机场的私人飞机上，FBI扣押了沃尔特的手机和笔记本电脑。　　这两家保险公司于今年2月收到了大陪审团传票。两家公司在6月提交的文件中表示，纽约南区联邦检察官调查焦点是两家保险公司是否如实披露了与股东持股资产相关的所有权权益。　　美国证券交易委员会（SEC）正在同时对Guggenheim Partners——Walter担任首席执行官的机构——以及上述两家保险公司展开调查。　　如果调查最终坐实违规，沃尔特可能面临资产冻结、巨额罚款，甚至刑事指控。　　沃尔特开始加大行动力度，甩卖旗下资产“还债”，上述湖人队的交易就是其中一例。沃尔特手中持有的英超切尔西俱乐部的股份，也已被摆上了货架，正在寻找买家。　　为降低关联交易比例，特拉华人寿已启动整改计划，通过向沃尔特旗下的资产管理公司TWG Global出售资产等方式重组贷款，目标在今年底前完成。　　检察官的调查并没有止步于沃尔特本身，而是扩大到沃尔特的公司及其业务之外。　　为两家保险公司提供评级服务的伊根-琼斯评级公司（Egan-Jones Ratings Co．）也同步被调查。　　行业数据显示，特拉华人寿和清泉保险是全美仅有的四家债券投资组合中超过15%获得伊根-琼斯评级的寿险公司。

五 | 自2024年以来，这两家保险公司已共同向伊根-琼斯公司支付了800万美元。

六 | 　　据知情人士透露，美国司法部已收集了伊根-琼斯评级公司与沃尔特控制的两家保险公司合作的相关记录。一位知情人士称，司法部还向伊根-琼斯公司发出了传票。（备注：美国检察官隶属于司法部，司法部部长就是总检察长。）　　标普等评级机构已下调两家保险公司的展望，但仍维持较高的财务评级。　　8月16日，做空机构Hunterbrook Media发布报告，指控另一家管理着1470亿美元资产的巨型险企Sammons Financial，同样掩盖了数亿美元投入沃尔特个人资产的关联投资。　　这些资本大佬进来后，根本没有把保险资金看作是保护消费者的防线，他们只看到了一大堆可以用来赚更多钱的现金。责任编辑：曹睿潼。

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